Introduction
In 2024, bilateral relations between India and the Maldives slid into confrontation—driven by political posturing, regional strategy competition, and nationalist rhetoric. Amid the rise of Maldivian President Mohamed Muizzu, once aligned with an “India Out” narrative, ties deteriorated before a thaw by late 2024. This episode underscores the delicate balance of diplomacy in the Indian Ocean Region where strategic alignments matter deeply.
1. Political Shockwaves & Anti‑India Rhetoric
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President Muizzu's pre-election visit to China in January 2024 and demand for Indian troop withdrawal marked a sharp policy pivot away from traditional ties with India. He insisted all Indian troops be out by May 10, 2024 Bloomberg.com+15Wikipedia+15AP News+15Financial Times+9EFE+9The Strategist+9.
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Local parliamentarians exacerbated tensions by posting derogatory remarks about India and PM Modi—sparking widespread backlash and an India-led tourism boycott campaign. The Maldivian government later suspended three deputy ministers responsible Wikipedia+3East Asia Forum+3The Strategist+3.
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India suffered a rapid drop in tourist arrivals from the Maldives—a loss of a key economic stake in the archipelago’s tourism-dependent economy The Times of India+2Reuters+2The Times of India+2.
2. Strategic Flashpoints & Military Posture
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The Maldives questioned India over the Coast Guard boarding of three Maldivian fishing vessels within Maldives’ EEZ, citing violation of international law. India remained non-committal to formal responses The Strategist+3India Today+3The Times of India+3.
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Muizzu sought to renegotiate several defense and maritime cooperation pacts with India, including the hydrographic survey agreement and military aviation support. His parliamentary committee initiated scrutiny of four key bilateral agreements stating sovereignty concerns India Today+15Firstpost+15Reddit+15.
3. Electoral Shift & Policy Turnaround
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The April 2024 parliamentary elections delivered a landslide victory to Muizzu’s People’s National Congress, consolidating his anti‑India platform and positioning Maldives for deeper alignment with China East Asia Forum+10Wikipedia+10Reddit+10.
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Analysts highlighted concerns that Maldives’ drift toward China, including signing a strategic cooperative framework and accepting infrastructure loans under BRI, would decrease India’s leverage in the region The Times of India+15EFE+15The Strategist+15.
4. Gradual Recalibration & Diplomatic Reset
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Despite tensions, India continued its development assistance—spending about ₹771 crore in FY24 on infrastructure projects like roads, bridges, and the Greater Male Connectivity Project The Times of India+2AP News+2The Times of India+2.
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Following Muizzu’s attendance at PM Modi’s June 2024 inauguration, diplomatic engagement resumed. Visits by high-ranking Maldivian officials—including Foreign Minister Zameer—to India facilitated dialogue and conflict resolution Reddit+15India Today+15EFE+15.
5. Economic Outreach & Strategic Realignment
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India extended $50 million through treasury-bill rollover and offered new currency swap and credit lines totaling over $400 million alongside infrastructure support. This aid aimed to stabilize Maldives financially and counter Chinese inroads Reuters+3AP News+3The Economic Times+3.
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Bilateral trade discussions were revived. India approved expanded essential commodity exports and re-engaged in industry-level engagements despite earlier friction India Today.
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In early 2025, India further increased its development assistance to Maldives by nearly 50% in the Union Budget, signaling sustained geopolitical partnership despite past tensions The Times of India+2AP News+2The Times of India+2.
Analysis & Strategic Implications
| Dimension | Key Insight |
|---|---|
| Leadership & Rhetoric | Muizzu’s pro-China posture and populist anti-India statements strained relations initially. |
| Geostrategic Stakes | Maldives’ port strategic location puts it at the intersection of Indo-Pacific competition. |
| Economic Diplomacy | India’s consistent aid and development support helped reduce isolation and restored ties. |
| Foreign Policy Reset | Modi’s engagement, complemented by high-level dialogues, enabled de-escalation. |
| Long-term Outlook | Maldives retained space to balance between China and India, but India’s economic backing reasserted influence. |
Conclusion
The 2024 India–Maldives tensions illustrate how domestic politics and strategic realignments can quickly strain neighbourhood diplomacy. Yet, India’s persistent economic support and high‑level outreach helped mend fences. The restoration of engagement—through infrastructure funding, currency swaps, and institutional dialogue—reemphasized India’s commitment to its ’Neighbourhood First’ doctrine.
Looking ahead, sustained stability rests on deeper institutional frameworks, mutual respect for sovereignty, and calibrated diplomacy amid growing Chinese investments. In a region marked by asymmetric influence, India’s capacity to combine soft-power resilience with strategic economic tools will determine its long-term position in the Maldives and the broader Indian Ocean Region.